Controlling chaos? The value and the challenges of applying complexity theory to project management

The literature abounds with descriptions of failures in high-profile projects and a range of initiatives has been generated to enhance project management practice (e.g., Morris, 2006). Estimating from our own research, there are scores of other project failures that are unrecorded. Many of these failures can be explained using existing project management theory; poor risk management, inaccurate estimating, cultures of optimism dominating decision making, stakeholder mismanagement, inadequate timeframes, and so on. Nevertheless, in spite of extensive discussion and analysis of failures and attention to the presumed causes of failure, projects continue to fail in unexpected ways. In the 1990s, three U.S. state departments of motor vehicles (DMV) cancelled major projects due to time and cost overruns and inability to meet project goals (IT-Cortex, 2010). The California DMV failed to revitalize their drivers’ license and registration application process after spending $45 million. The Oregon DMV cancelled their five year, $50 million project to automate their manual, paper-based operation after three years when the estimates grew to $123 million; its duration stretched to eight years or more and the prototype was a complete failure. In 1997, the Washington state DMV cancelled their license application mitigation project because it would have been too big and obsolete by the time it was estimated to be finished. There are countless similar examples of projects that have been abandoned or that have not delivered the requirements.

Rudiments of complexity theory for scientists and engineers

Complexity theory is an important and growing area in computer science that has caught the imagination of many researchers in mathematics, physics and biology. In order to reach out to a large section of scientists and engineers, the paper introduces elementary concepts in complexity theory in a informal manner, motivating the reader with many examples.

Complexity theory and tourism policy research

This paper investigates applications of complexity theory in the social sphere and considers its potential contribution to enhance understanding of tourism policy making. Five concepts are identified to explore complex social circumstances and human interactions that influence policy. Social applications of complexity suggest a move towards localised and deeper studies to explore the dynamics of policy enactment in context. It suggests complexity theory might be used as a thinking tool to enable a more holistic approach to policy analysis and investigate policy in its context, considering interactions between different policies/programmes, and the implications of human agency.

Complexity theory and planning: examining 'fractals' for organising policy domains in planning practice

This article examines selected methodological insights that complexity theory might provide for planning. In particular, it focuses on the concept of fractals and, through this concept, how ways of organising policy domains across scales might have particular causal impacts. The aim of this article is therefore twofold: (a) to position complexity theory within social science through a ‘generalised discourse’, thereby orienting it to particular ontological and epistemological biases and (b) to reintroduce a comparatively new concept – fractals – from complexity theory in a way that is consistent with the ontological and epistemological biases argued for, and expand on the contribution that this might make to planning. Complexity theory is theoretically positioned as a neo-systems theory with reasons elaborated. Fractal systems from complexity theory are systems that exhibit self-similarity across scales. This concept (as previously introduced by the author in ‘Fractal spaces in planning and governance’) is further developed in this article to (a) illustrate the ontological and epistemological claims for complexity theory, and to (b) draw attention to ways of organising policy systems across scales to emphasise certain characteristics of the systems – certain distinctions. These distinctions when repeated across scales reinforce associated processes/values/end goals resulting in particular policy outcomes. Finally, empirical insights from two case studies in two different policy domains are presented and compared to illustrate the workings of fractals in planning practice.

Metaphors in complexity theory and planning

This article reviews the use of complexity theory in planning theory using the theory of metaphors for theory transfer and theory construction. The introduction to the article presents the author's positioning of planning theory. The first section thereafter provides a general background of the trajectory of development of complexity theory and discusses the rationale of using the theory of metaphors for evaluating the use of complexity theory in planning. The second section introduces the workings of metaphors in general and theory-constructing metaphors in particular, drawing out an understanding of how to proceed with an evaluative approach towards an analysis of the use of complexity theory in planning. The third section presents two case studies – reviews of two articles – to illustrate how the framework might be employed. It then discusses the implications of the evaluation for the question ‘can complexity theory contribute to planning?’ The concluding section discusses the employment of the ‘theory of metaphors’ for evaluating theory transfer and draws out normative suggestions for engaging in theory transfer using the metaphorical route.

Articulating ‘public interest’ through complexity theory

The ‘Public interest’, even if viewed with ambiguity or scepticism, has been one of the primary means by which various professional roles of planners have been justified. Many objections to the concept have been advanced by writers in planning academia. Notwithstanding these, ‘public interest’ continues to be mobilised, to justify, defend or argue for planning interventions and reforms. This has led to arguments that planning will have to adopt and recognise some form of public interest in practice to legitimise itself.. This paper explores current debates around public interest and social justice and advances a vision of the public interest informed by complexity theory. The empirical context of the paper is the poverty alleviation programme, the Kudumbashree project in Kerala, India.

Complexity theory and organizing form dualities

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to describe how order-generated rules applied to organizing form dualities can assist in creating the conditions for emergent, self-organized behavior in organizations, thereby offering an operational deployment of complexity theory.

Design/methodology/approach – The paper begins by showing that the concept of dualities is consistent with complexity-thinking. In addition, when applied to organizing forms, dualities represent a practical way of affecting an organization's balance between chaos and order. Thus, when augmented with order-generating rules, organizing form dualities provide an access point for the practical instigation of edge of chaos conditions and the potential for emergence.

Findings – The paper maintains that many attempts to “manage” complexity have been associated with changes to organizing forms, specifically toward new forms of organizing. It is suggested that organizing form dualities provide some management guidance for encouraging the “edge of chaos” conditions advocated in complexity theory, although the details of self-organization cannot be prescribed given the assumptions of non-linearity associated with complexity theory perspectives. Finally, it is proposed that organizing dualities can elucidate the nature and application of order-generating rules in non-linear complex systems.

Practical implications – Dualities offer some guidance toward the practical implementation of complexity theory as they represent an accessible sub-system where the forces for order and chaos – traditional and new forms of organizing respectively – are accessible and subject to manipulation.

Originality/value – The commonalities between dualities and complexity theory are intuitive, but little conceptual work has shown how the former can be employed as a guide to managing organizing forms. Moreover, this approach demonstrates that managers may be able to stimulate “edge of chaos” conditions in a practical way, without making positivistic assumptions about the causality associated with their efforts.

The interlanguage development in the spanish learning as foreign language in Teletandem under the View of the Complexity Theory

This article presents, under the perspective of Complexity Theory, the characteristics of the learning process of Spanish as a foreign language in Teletandem. Data were collected from two pairs of Portuguese-Spanish interagents, who were engaged in a systematic and regular interaction, based on the tandem principles. It was found that the learning experience is developed with the peculiarities that arise from the context, agents, members and their nuances, which revealed the presence of a shallow space between the systems of native and foreign languages.

Complexity Development Theory and enterprise development at the bottom of the pyramid

In 2001 45% (2.7 billion) of the world’s population of approximately 6.1 billion lived in ‘moderate poverty’ on less than US $ 2 per person per day (World Population Summary, 2012). In the last 60 years there have been many theories attempting to explain development, why some countries have the fastest growth in history, while others stagnate and so far no way has been found to explain the differences. Traditional views imply that development is the aggregation of successes from multiple individual business enterprises, but this ignores the interactions between and among institutions, organisations and individuals in the economy, which can often have unpredictable effects. Complexity Development Theory proposes that by viewing development as an emergent property of society, we can help create better development programs at the organisational, institutional and national levels. This paper asks how the principals of CAS can be used to develop CDT principals used to develop and operate development programs at the bottom of the pyramid in developing economies. To investigate this research question we conduct a literature review to define and describe CDT and create propositions for testing. We illustrate these propositions using a case study of an Asset Based Community Development (ABCD) Program for existing and nascent entrepreneurs in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC). We found evidence that all the principals of CDT were related to the characteristics of CAS. If this is the case, development programs will be able to select which CAS needed to test these propositions.

Theory of mind and relational complexity

Cognitive complexity and control theory and relational complexity theory attribute developmental changes in theory of mind (TOM) to complexity. In 3 studies, 3-, 4-, and 5-year-olds performed TOM tasks (false belief, appearance-reality), less complex connections (Level 1 perspective-taking) tasks, and transformations tasks (understanding the effects of location changes and colored filters) with content similar to TOM. There were also predictor tasks at binary-relational and ternary-relational complexity levels, with different content. Consistent with complexity theories: (a) connections and transformations were easier and mastered earlier than TOM; (b) predictor tasks accounted for more than 80% of age-related variance in TOM; and (c) ternary-relational items accounted for TOM variance, before and after controlling for age and binary-relational items. Prediction did not require hierarchically structured predictor tasks.

The theory of complexity adapted to international relations: the behaviour of the visegrad-ukraine complex adaptive system since November 2013

La teoría de la complejidad, propia del estudio de fenómenos relativos a las ciencias naturales, se muestra como un marco alternativo para comprender los eventos emergentes que surgen en el sistema internacional. Esta monografía correlaciona el lenguaje de la complejidad con las relaciones internacionales, enfocándose en la relación Visegrad—Ucrania, ya que ha sido escenario de una serie de eventos emergentes e inesperados desde las protestas civiles de noviembre de 2013 en Kiev. El sistema complejo que existe entre el Grupo Visegrad y Ucrania se ve , desde entonces, en la necesidad de adaptarse ante los recurrentes eventos emergentes y de auto organizarse. De ese modo, podrá comportarse en concordancia con escenarios impredecibles, particularmente en lo relacionado con sus interacciones energéticas y sus interconexiones políticas.